Brasil fica para trás na corrida pela nova economia “verde”

Enquanto EUA e China investem bilhões em tecnologia, país se acomoda com matriz limpa, dizem analistas
Em 2009, grandes economias gastaram em média 16,4% dos pacotes de estímulo com investimentos “verdes”; no Brasil, fatia foi de 5%

Na corrida global por desenvolvimento científico e ampliação de investimentos ligados à economia de baixo carbono, o Brasil começa a ficar para trás.

Enquanto potências como EUA e China investem centenas de bilhões de dólares na área, vista como a nova fronteira do desenvolvimento mundial, o Brasil nem sequer tem um modelo nacional, afirmam acadêmicos e ambientalistas. No setor privado, negócios verdes esbarram em gargalos como estrutura tributária inadequada, falta de marco regulatório e ausência de incentivo.

Nessa corrida, o país tem as vantagens da biodiversidade e de escolhas feitas no passado (como a aposta no álcool e na hidroeletricidade). No entanto, desperdiça o enorme potencial de fontes de energia, como solar, eólica e de biomassa, e avança lentamente em áreas-chave, como etanol celulósico, segundo especialistas.

“Talvez esse conforto esteja trazendo uma reação de certa forma comodista, diferentemente dos países premidos por urgência de mudança energética, que estão fazendo esforços para diversificar suas fontes de energia e mudar padrões produtivos e de consumo”, afirma o economista Ricardo Abramovay, do Núcleo de Economia Socioambiental da USP.

Globalmente, uma fatia média de 16,4% dos pacotes de estímulo lançados no ano passado para mitigar os efeitos da crise econômica foi “verde” (US$ 513 bilhões em 17 grandes economias), segundo o HSBC. A Bloomberg New Energy Finance estima que 16% desses fundos verdes sejam destinados a pesquisa e desenvolvimento de tecnologias limpas.

No Brasil, só R$ 1,5 bilhão, ou cerca de 5% do total de estímulos fiscais anticrise, focou o setor produtivo “limpo”, como o IPI reduzido para carros “flex”. E, segundo levantamento do Ministério do Meio Ambiente, feito em todas as pastas a pedido da Folha, em 2009 o governo gastou R$ 2,5 bilhões em ações verdes (R$ 380 milhões diretamente ligados à pesquisa, sem contar atividade espacial).

O montante, fatia de 0,36% do Orçamento executado (descontadas estatais e transferências), é considerado baixo e “questionável” por especialistas, por contar programas que não teriam relação com a área, como Luz para Todos (que leva energia a locais isolados) e Pronaf (de agricultura familiar).

Para o cientista político Sergio Abranches, o país continua sem uma “política integrada de sustentabilidade” e a Política Nacional de Mudança Climática -sancionada em dezembro, mas ainda sem regulamentação- não deverá mudar esse cenário, por se concentrar em combate a desmatamento e “um pouco em agricultura”.

A geógrafa da UFRJ Bertha Becker, especialista da questão amazônica, diz que “ainda não estão claramente definidos” o que são “desenvolvimento sustentável” e “economia verde”, mas que investimento em pesquisa e ciência “certamente ajudaria” o país a criar modelo de uso inteligente dos recursos.

“Se não investirmos em capacitação científica, para ficarmos na ponta do desenvolvimento de baixo carbono, vamos ficar para trás. No século 20, não fizemos, os asiáticos fizeram. Agora, está zerando de novo a capacidade produtiva. Quem investir mais se destacará”, afirma Abranches.

Etanol e solar

Justamente devido a baixos investimentos em pesquisa, o Brasil põe em risco sua liderança em etanol ante seu maior concorrente, os EUA, que investem mais para desenvolver o etanol celulósico (feito do bagaço de cana, por exemplo), o futuro dos biocombustíveis.

“Estamos engatinhando. O Brasil tem tido muito pouca atividade no campo da ciência, embora tenha desenvolvido na prática uma tecnologia bastante desenvolvida”, afirma o físico Rogério Cezar de Cerqueira Leite, diretor do Centro Nacional de Pesquisas em Energia e Materiais, em Campinas.

Apesar de a cana ser muito mais eficiente e “limpa” do que o milho desenvolvido nos Estados Unidos, caso a tecnologia da segunda geração seja desenvolvida lá, e não haja progressos aqui, os americanos tomariam a dianteira. No Brasil, investimentos públicos e privados em pesquisa de etanol somam R$ 150 milhões ao ano, segundo estima o CTC (Centro de Tecnologia Canavieira); nos EUA, US$ 1 bilhão ao ano vai só para a pesquisa celulósica.

Um esforço de peso na corrida é o Centro de Ciência e Tecnologia do Bioetanol, inaugurado pelo presidente Lula em janeiro, com investimentos de R$ 69 milhões. Seus diretores pedem orçamento anual, ainda indefinido, de R$ 50 milhões.

Até 2020, a poluição relativa à energia no mínimo dobrará, estima o próprio governo. Fontes limpas complementares e eficiência energética poderiam atenuar os efeitos do aumento do consumo de energia, diz o físico da USP José Goldemberg.

“O governo está mesmerizado com o pré-sal, há um esforço grande na pesquisa em torno dele. Se você fica fascinado, presta menos atenção a alternativas, que podem até parecer mais caras, mas por isso estímulos poderiam resolver.”

A energia solar, por exemplo, segue vista como cara e sem escala. “É a visão de quem não conhece o setor. Indústrias chinesas já têm escala, porque começaram em 2002 com muito incentivo do governo”, diz Izete Zanesco, do Núcleo Tecnológico de Energia Solar da PUC-RS.

O grupo acabou de encerrar um projeto de tecnologia nacional, a custo mais baixo, para painéis solares e agora trabalha num modelo de negócios para atrair investidores. Entre 2005 e 2009, o projeto teve recursos de R$ 6 milhões -bem abaixo dos 11 milhões iniciais que o Instituto Fraunhofer de Energia Solar da Alemanha teve para projeto similar, diz Zanesco.

Ascom-Rezende

Fonte: Folha de São Paulo

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