Produtividade agrícola pode garantir a segurança alimentar

A alta dos preços dos alimentos nos últimos anos foi bastante preocupante, pois perto de 1 bilhão de pessoas (algo como pouco mais de cinco vezes a população brasileira) ainda defrontam-se com fome e subnutrição.

O problema vinha se atenuando desde os anos 1970, em grande parte devido a avanços na produtividade com expressiva redução de preços.

Entretanto, instituições importantes como o Banco Mundial detectaram desaceleração na produtividade da terra (“yield”) nos anos 2000, o que poderia, ao lado da forte expansão da demanda, explicar a elevação de preços e levar a novas crises quando a economia mundial voltar a crescer.

Keith O. Fuglie, do Departamento de Agricultura dos Estados Unidos (Usda), avaliou a tendência da produtividade da agropecuária em escala mundial.

Em vez de focar na produtividade da terra ou do trabalho, ele mediu a Produtividade Total dos Fatores (PTF), evitando interpretações incorretas decorrentes do uso de medidas parciais.

Por exemplo, a produtividade do trabalho é influenciada por investimentos em mecanização; a da terra, pelos gastos com fertilizantes e corretivos.

É possível aumentar a produção de duas maneiras. Uma delas envolve o uso maior dos recursos produtivos disponíveis, gastando-se mais, evidentemente.

A outra se dá por mudança tecnológica, que disponibiliza insumos e máquinas de melhor qualidade, mão de obra mais qualificada e melhores práticas administrativas, sem necessariamente levar a maiores gastos.

A PTF compara o crescimento da produção ao do uso de terra, trabalho, capital e insumos. Se a produção crescer mais que o emprego desses recursos, a PTF aumenta e reduções de preços são factíveis.

O estudo mostra que a PTF nos últimos 20 anos (1990 em diante), cresceu duas vezes mais rapidamente (1,6% ao ano) do que nas duas décadas anteriores (1970 a 1990).

Ela responde por 70% do crescimento de pouco mais de 2% ao ano da produção.

O que vem se desacelerando são os recursos aplicados na produção agrícola, cuja taxa de crescimento caiu 60% entre os dois períodos.

Na América do Norte e na Europa, desde 1980 houve redução generalizada nos recursos aplicados, com leve retração na produção.

Profunda queda de recursos houve também na antiga União Soviética após o desmantelamento do bloco.

O Brasil apresentou o melhor desempenho em termos de PTF, que, desde 1980, vem crescendo a mais de 3% ao ano, o que explica 83% do aumento de produção.

A liderança brasileira, porém, não é isolada: a China segue no seu calcanhar, graças a reformas institucionais e a mudanças tecnológicas.

O investimento na agricultura chinesa vem crescendo tanto quanto ou mais rapidamente do que no Brasil.

Na África, o investimento e a PTF vêm crescendo, mas não o bastante para garantir segurança alimentar.

O crescimento futuro da produção deverá proceder da América Latina e da Ásia, que ainda investem no setor agrícola e mantêm sistemas eficientes de pesquisa e extensão. Espera-se que haja maior cooperação entre elas e a África.
Da parte dos produtores, a lição de casa vem sendo feita.
Salvo por problemas climáticos, novas crises de commodities poderão ser evitadas se os governos não deixarem que a demanda dispare.

Aascom – Armênio

Fonte: Folha de São Paulo

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