Alterações no clima já começam a forçar a adaptação da agricultura

Pesquisadores buscam alternativas para problemas que podem surgir até 2070.

Quem volta hoje à região do extremo noroeste paulista após ficar 10 anos sem visita-la certamente sentirá falta dos grandes cafezais à beira da estrada. Os problemas econômicos do café e o avanço da cana-de-açúcar forçaram a alteração na paisagem, mas por trás desses processos há um forte componente ligado às mudanças climáticas. “O café teve perdas de produtividade por conta das ondas de calor na região, abrindo espaço para duas culturas resistentes a altas temperaturas: cana e seringueiras”, afirma o agrônomo Hilton Silveira Pinto, diretor do Centro de Pesquisas Meteorológicas aplicadas à Agricultura (Cepagri) da Universidade Estadual de Campinas (Unicamp).

Dados computados pelo Cepagri indicam um aumento das temperaturas mínimas de 2,5 °C em regiões como Campinas e Ribeirão Preto, ambas em São Paulo. Enquanto se discute se o aquecimento global está ou não relacionado à atividade humana, a agricultura começa a se adaptar.

Na região de Votuporanga (SP), a noroeste de São José do Rio Preto, a produção de café é hoje limitada a cafeicultores que utilizam a irrigação e o plantio adensado, com os pés plantados mais próximos. Assim as árvores fazem mais sombra sobre as outras e perdem menos água.

Impacto

A sensibilidade fez do café uma das primeiras culturas impactadas pelo aquecimento global no Brasil, mas há outras que podem seguir na mesma linha. Na realidade, o aumento da temperatura pode afetar negativamente toda a agricultura brasileira, com exceção da cana e da mandioca, mostra um estudo realizado pela Unicamp e pela Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa).

Nesta safra, as fortes chuvas provocadas pelo El Niño devem gerar uma redução de 1 milhão de toneladas na produção de arroz, segundo o Instituto Riograndense do Arroz. “Observações empíricas mostram que o aquecimento global pode estar aumentando os efeitos do El Niño”, diz Silveira Pinto.

As mudanças climáticas poderão se refletir até na política agrícola. Isso porque o crédito rural e o seguro agrícola só são concedidos a quem respeita o zoneamento nacional de risco de cada região e cultura. Se o risco de plantar arroz no Rio Grande do Sul aumentar, por exemplo, os arrozeiros podem ficar sem crédito rural, ou o governo terá que flexibilizar as regras de concessão dos empréstimos e sofrer mais com a inadimplência.

Adaptação

Para que isso não aconteça, e para que os cenários negativos traçados para a agricultura sejam evitados, a saída é investir em tecnologias que adaptem as plantas às mudanças climáticas. Empresas públicas e privadas já estão trabalhando para desenvolver plantas tolerantes a um aumento de 2°C na temperatura média e a maiores períodos sem chuvas, por exemplo. “As empresas estão mudando o foco de suas pesquisas, da resistência a doenças para a tolerância à seca e ao calor”, constata Silveira Pinto, especialista em agroclimatologia.

A pressa é grande: uma variedade de planta resistente pode demorar 10 anos para ser desenvolvida, com custo anual de R$ 1 milhão.

Ascom-Rezende

Fonte: Notícias Agrícolas (Luiz Silveira-lsilveira@brasileconomico.com.br)

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